Prime 9 Questions
In MLB Network fashion we will take a look at the Prime 9 on the field questions the New York Mets will look to answer over the 2012 Major League Baseball campaign in their efforts for immediate success as well as attempting to sculpt the parent club and get important answers as far as both potential mainstays and needs for the future.
#9 – Ruben Tejada and the SS Position
First and foremost Ruben Tejada needs to be himself as he is not going to magically turn into a Jose Reyes - at the top of his game – type of player. He is a developing player who has shown ability both defensively and offensively at a young age. His biggest obstacle could be overcoming adversity and not crumbling under the pressure of replacing a fan-favorite and the ire of impatient fans. He will most likely be slotted into the seventh or eighth hole in the batting order to avoid pressure and expectations in an effort to allow him to get in a comfortable and relaxed state considering the circumstances. Potentially he could be a traditional number two hitter that handles the bat well, can hit & run, bunt, etc.
While Tejada, at just 22 years young, has shown positive glimpses in the infancy of his career he still needs to prove he can handle the rigors of playing a demanding position like shortstop for an entire season at the big league level. The long-term outlook or ceiling is probably a light-hitting decent defensive player with good hands who could grow as a gap-type hitter with doubles power and could be a 20 SB guy as he matures as a player. He will draw comparisons to a Maicer Izturis/Erick Aybar type of player as he grows developmentally. Dependent upon other developments he may see a position switch to second base at some point down the road which his skill set may be best suited for or even, like the aforementioned Izturis, a utility infielder role but until then he will be given every opportunity to become a fixture at shortstop for the Amazins.
Player Profile
| Tejada | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#8 – An Improved Bullpen
The ever increasing importance of a quality bullpen is where the Mets focused all of their attention on this offseason. With the additions of Frank Francisco (RHP) and Jon Rauch (RHP) through free-agency and Ramon Ramirez (RHP) through trade the perceived perception seems to be that the Mets have at least shored up the late-inning relief core compared to what they had at the end of the 2011 season. Francisco with his good SO/IP ratio will get most of the save opportunities out of the gate but really seems best suited for a setup type role. Rauch, a journeyman of sorts, is hit or miss from year to year but does potentially provide experience and something of a power arm. Ramirez has generally been one of the more reliable mid-to-late inning relievers in baseball over the last handful of years.
Beyond the additions the Mets are hoping for a repeat performance from Manny Acosta (RHP) and lefty specialist, Tim Byrdak, while hoping beyond hope that Bobby Parnell (RHP) strives in a lesser role provided with less pressure situations. The elder, Miguel Batista (RHP), will most likely round out the bullpen with the capability of being used in multiple roles. Only time will tell how much better, if at all, this year’s version of the bullpen will be but the strength of their starting rotation could have ill effects on any relief core as far as workload so they may already be at a disadvantage.
At the end of the day a number of these relievers, new additions and holdovers alike, could and probably should be trade fodder at the deadline depending on their individual performance and where the team is in the standings considering the supply and demand for pitching for contending teams and their stretch runs each and every season.
Player Profiles
| Francisco | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Rauch | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Ramirez | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Acosta | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Parnell | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Byrdak | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Batista | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#7 – Josh Thole and the Catcher’s Position
The Mets have big questions regarding the defensive play at second base and right field but their current catching situation could affect the club more so than the aforementioned positions. The offensive output that Josh Thole provides has not yet proven to outweigh his deficiencies behind the plate defensively. Offensively, he is a light-hitting .260-.270 AVG type of hitter with next to no power and zero foot speed. The bigger problem in my mind is not the hitting, throwing, blocking, or footwork, which none are what you would want quality wise, but rather having the inexperienced Thole handling a pitching staff consisting of a former ace trying to re-establish himself, a knuckleballer, a year-to-year headcase, a young southpaw needing to take the next step in his career, and a young finesse guy.
I question whether or not the Mets starters have the trust and faith in the young catcher who has really only been playing the position extensively as a professional since 2008. One would have to imagine the starting staff could benefit from a savvy veteran defensive oriented catcher considering Johan Santana (LHP) will most likely be somewhat of a different pitcher if he makes it back and could use all the help and experience in making adjustments in the transition, in coaxing Mike Pelfrey (RHP) through an outing and trying to get him to be more consistent and confident in his repertoire, in forming chemistry and being a leader of sorts for Jon Niese (LHP) on a game plan and pitch selection in an effort to advance his game from both a performance and mental standpoint, and in trying to bring Dillon Gee (RHP) along as a young pitcher. Then you have the challenges of catching the knuckleballer, RA Dickey (RHP), as well. It seems like a tall order for a player with a limited skill set and experience.
What I find hard to fathom is Thole becoming a fixture behind the dish as I do not see him developing the skills needed to be part of the future. It would be a bit of a different situation if Thole provided big-time offense but even then you would not want a catcher with the overall deficiencies defensively included in the fundamentals of catching, game-calling, and receiving. Out of all the Mets question marks and holes, and there are many, I could not be more disappointed that they seemed to make no effort in upgrading at catcher especially given that it is a position of such importance in how it can impact a pitching staff overall. With that said, it may be a case where this current projected starting rotation does not have the talent and ability overall to where having a veteran catcher would make much of a difference in the immediate.
Player Profile
| Thole | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#6 – Daniel Murphy and the 2B Position
While Daniel Murphy has proven to be an above average stick with mostly doubles power he has yet to find a comfort zone defensively at any one position due to ability, durability, and/or lack of playing time. It looks as if he will be given the opportunity to play the second base position in an effort to get his plus bat into the lineup on a daily basis. However, in his limited time at the position not only is the immediate awkwardness readily seen in watching him during fundamental drills or game type situations but he has had two consecutive season ending injuries on plays around the second base bag where he was taken out on a double play and taken out on receiving the throw on a steal play which may have been avoided by a more experienced and able defensive player.
In Murphy’s attempts to play left field and first base there were glaring defensive miscues that just cannot, or rather should not, happen at the big league level. In his limited time at the second base position he has not known where to be on simple cutoffs, double cuts, and bunt plays and has even forgotten to cover the bag on occasion. Those kind of mistakes are simply an embarrassment for any big league club as they are instinctive plays that players learn from a young age. It is simple baseball smarts and an understanding of the game and position which he has seemed to lack not to mention his footwork and play around the second base bag on the double play, etc.
The reason I rank the “Murphy/defensive” question ahead of the Mets current situation at catcher is the idea that if Murphy proves to be as disastrous as many think he will be defensively then he becomes a bench player thus taking one of the seemingly better offensive players out of the lineup. With that said he simply is not a run producer like a Jeff Kent, who was at least fundamentally sound defensively, who you can live with regarding defensive miscues or a lack of range from time to time considering the amount of production he would provide offensively. In the event that David Wright is traded over the summer look for the Mets to move Murphy to the hot corner where he made 63 errors in 261 minor league games.
Player Profile
| Murphy | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#5 – A Resurgence of Jason Bay
Simply put, the Mets need the Jason Bay of old to have any chance of having a respectable and/or surprising 2012 season. The performance Bay has given them over the first two years of his lucrative deal has been, for the lack of a better word, putrid. If the other parts of the middle of the order play either like they have in the past or up to their supposed potential to go along with a resurgence from Bay as a 30+ HR and 100+ RBI hitter then the Mets offense could be formidable.
The dimension changes to Citi Field should benefit Bay considerably, however, one should keep in mind that he was a much better hitter at home compared to his road splits in 2011. His defensive play has been solid as well as his clubhouse presence, although, those are not the reasons he was given an expensive multi-year contract. Bay was signed to be a run producer and he has yet to deliver due to durability issues, diminishing bat speed, and playing half of his games in a supposedly intimidating ballpark. His recent road splits contradict the latter but moving forward this season has to be considered a do-or-die type of baseball story as there are not any built in excuses left to ponder.
The Mets will give Bay the majority and ample playing time to get off to a good start and get his career back on track but considering his contract status that states his 2014 $17M club option ($3M buyout) becomes guaranteed with 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012 and 2013 which combined with a full no-trade clause, not that it would be easy moving him if he stays consistent with his recent performance, you should not be surprised that if he continues to falter that the Mets decide to decrease his playing time significantly in an attempt to both improve the offense and to avoid the option year. Should Bay have a rebound type first half of the season and the Mets are floundering as a team look for trade rumors to be frequent.
Player Profile
| Bay | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#4 – Trio of Pitching Prospects
In building a team there is more than one way to go about it but the tried and true method has always centered on starting pitching and putting together an overall quality pitching staff. The Mets, traditionally, have been a pitching rich organization when they have had prolonged success over a number of seasons especially during 1969-1976 and 1984-1990. With the current trio of high caliber arms in their system they are setting the possible foundation for the franchise for years to come. Checking in at number four on our list is the continued development and growth of the trio of top pitching prospects in the organization in right handers Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, and Zack Wheeler. It is imperative for these pitchers to have positive seasons at each level they progress through during the 2012 campaign in helping shape the future.
Harvey, 22 years old, was drafted out of UNC as a fairly polished pitcher in the first round of the 2010 draft who is on the fast track to the big leagues. He is a pitcher with a plus fastball and breaking ball but needs some fine tuning concerning his changeup and his overall command. Harvey should start the season at Triple A Buffalo in 2012. The Mets would probably like to give him a full season there while also limiting his workload a bit but he may be able to progress far enough to push some buttons dependent upon what happens with the Mets current projected rotation performance and health wise. In any case you will not see Harvey at the big league level until June at the earliest but he should be teetering on being a mainstay moving forward at the start of the 2013 campaign.
Familia, 22 years old, of Santo Domingo, DR, was signed in 2007 and has been moving through the system at a solid pace with his high 90s fastball being the center of attention. He will live and die with the power pitches as his secondary stuff is still a work-in-progress featuring an average breaking ball and so-so changeup. Familia is projected to be a mid-rotation type but could also fill a role as a quality late-inning reliever and possibly even as a closer down the road. All of that will be dependent upon how his secondary pitches develop. He should begin the season at Triple A Buffalo but there is a slight chance he could see time at the big league level in some capacity during the 2012 season which will be determined by his own advancement concerning his overall command and the success and struggles of the parent club’s staff.
Wheeler, 21 years old, was acquired in the Carlos Beltran deal with the San Francisco Giants last season. He is a former first round pick in the 2009 draft out of East Paulding High School in Dallas, GA. Out of the trio of pitching prospects he has the biggest upside with a heavy and sinking mid-90s fastball, a plus power-curve, and a developing changeup. As is with many young power pitchers his command needs some work as well as his walk rate but his future looks bright. Wheeler should begin the season and may spend the entirety of 2012 at Double A Binghamton. There is no chance you will see him at the big league level in 2012 and while he may push the Mets into thinking about taking him north to open the 2013 season the safer bet is probably a June 2013 estimated time of arrival at the earliest.
Player Profiles
| Harvey | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs | ||
| Familia | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs | ||
| Wheeler | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs | ||
#3 – Trio of Unpredictability
If the Mets get historically positive seasons from the incumbents, a few of the younger players to take a step forward in their careers, and the supposed improved bullpen proves to be just that then the amount of success or respectability they experience as a team will come down to the performance of the mid-to-backend starters in their rotation. The trio of unpredictability that is Mike Pelfrey (RHP), Jon Niese (LHP), and Dillon Gee (RHP) are impossible to predict, performance wise, due to a number of issues ranging from mental makeup, inconsistency, inexperience, talent level, and durability to name a few.
Pelfrey is entering his seventh big league season and he is still an enigma as far as being a reliable performer from year-to-year. Historically, he has been on again and off again in alternating seasons over the past four years so at least he has that going for him, if you believe in those things, as he is coming off an atrocious 2011 campaign. For the entirety of Pelfrey’s career I have pounded him over and over again about the lack of secondary pitches from both a quality, stuff wise, and consistency, location wise, standpoint. However, I now believe he needs to shelve the idea of being a four pitch pitcher and simply pitch to his strengths that are locating the four-seem fastball and using the two-seemer(sinker) as an out pitch while mixing in a breaking ball from time to time simply to keep hitters honest. Pelfrey is a pitch-to-contact pitcher even though his imposing size would make one think otherwise. Keys to a successful 2012 season are locate, get ahead, use the sinker to get ground balls, and work at a faster pace.
Niese is turning into an enigma himself as he can be cruising along through the first four or five innings of an outing looking unhittable and then he gives up four or five runs in a flash leaving you left pondering what just happened. The big inning is not the only situation he needs to avoid as he needs to lower his BABIP against and smooth out his H/9 as well if he is going to take the next needed step as a starting pitcher. Niese has a decent SO/9 ratio but if you would have listened to all the talk about the young southpaw over the winter one would have thought it was much, much better. When watching Niese pitch you can see the potential in his repertoire with a plus fastball, cutter, and 12-6 hook but he needs to have both a better game plan and pitch selection to improve upon the previous two seasons as well as prove he can make it through an entire season from a health standpoint. The stuff is there but if we do not see improvement this season one has to think he is what he is and that is a repeat offender of his previous two highly mediocre campaigns.
Gee is of the lesser known quantity but really the Mets should hope to get 30+ starts and 180 IP in 2012 with the idea of him being the proverbial “innings eater.” To improve upon last season he must cut down on the BB/9 as well as the amount of HBP. Gee is a control/finesse type guy at his best and the amount of BB and HBP he allowed in his first season was detrimental to his overall numbers. He also must prove his durability in handling a full season workload as a guy who needs to pitch to both sides of the plate and to continue to get separation in changing speeds it is imperative he remains strong throughout as a pitcher with his stuff will get hammered when missing spots on a semi-regular basis. Should Gee cut down on the batters reaching base without puting the ball in play and showing more consistency in hitting his spots over the course of a season then he has a chance to be a quality backend of the rotation pitcher who will at least give you an important innings count if not much else.
Player Profiles
| Pelfrey | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Niese | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
| Gee | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#2 – David Wright an MVP Candidate
David Wright, entering his ninth big league season, is essentially the last man standing from the Mets last season that one could say was semi-successful in 2006. That was a time when he was being led by seasoned veterans the likes of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Billy Wagner among others. This is now 100% Wright’s team and it is time for him to stand front and center and lead by example for a team whom nearly everyone has begun shoveling dirt over. To put it simply Wright needs to have an MVP caliber season in trying to earn this current team some respect.
With being far removed from his 2009 concussion and other injuries seemingly behind him, the fences moved in, and a decision needed to be made regarding his future with the organization Wright needs to resemble the player earlier in his career before the move to Citi Field. At the plate he needs to revert back to his strengths which was always centered on going the other way with a patient approach. Wright also needs to improve his BB/SO ratio which has trended alarmingly the wrong way for the last three seasons. The 2012 season will give a big glimpse into the future of what kind of player he will be. Wright needs to show big improvement both offensively and defensively to live up to the lofty respect he has around the game.
For the Mets to have any success or earn any respect around the game as a team in 2012 Wright must be to the Mets as Chipper Jones was to the Braves in his heyday. He needs to produce clutch hit after clutch hit, play Gold Glove defense, lead and push his teammates, and ultimately be the guy other teams say they will not let beat them but at the end of the day he ends up doing just that in some fashion or facet of the game. A tall order for a player whose career has been going in the wrong direction. Beyond all of that and dependent upon his and the team’s performance overall, trade rumors could be rampant all summer long but if the Mets were going to move Wright their leverage clearly revolves around moving him next offseason considering his contract status states he can void his 2013 $16M club option ($1M buyout) if he is traded thus making him a two month rental at this year’s trade deadline and a free-agent at season’s end should he invoke his right in voiding the 2013 club option.
Player Profile
| Wright | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
#1 – A Johan Santana Return
For the second year running the number one Prime 9 question pertaining to the Mets revolves around the health and possible return of former and hopefully current ace, Johan Santana (LHP). The idea of a Santana return is two-fold in meaning in that the Mets are hoping he returns and gives them a positive performance to anchor their starting rotation and help the team on the field but also give them a return on the massive investment they made on him when they signed him to a 6 year/$137.5M (2008-13) contract with a 2014 $25M club option ($5.5M buyout). It is said to take two years to come back from an injury like Santana suffered if a pitcher comes back at all and with that and the mystery surrounding Santana’s rehab in 2011 it is impossible to predict what the Mets can expect from their ace going forward.
The question remains that if Santana proves he is durable enough to take the ball every fifth day what kind of pitcher, quality wise, are the Mets dealing with? Will he be able to create enough separation, speed wise, with his fastball and changeup to distinguish his historically mostly two-pitch pitching style? Will the slider be a factor considering before the injury he was using it less and less? Will he be forced to add a slow breaking ball and/or become more of a finesse/location guy that pitches to mostly contact rather than being considered somewhat of a strike out pitcher? The most important question here is the durable one as Santana is competitive enough to make the adjustments needed in becoming whatever kind of pitcher he does whether that is one closer to his former self, more of a finesse southpaw, or somewhere in-between as he seemingly has the determination to be an above average pitcher.
Considering his annual salary over the next two seasons I would sign up right now for a pitcher who pitched on par, performance wise, as did Tom Glavine during his later seasons (2005-2006 specifically) in his Mets career. That is to the tune of double digit wins and a ERA in the mid-to-high 3.00s. Best case scenario, for the optimist, is that he shocks baseball and comes back 80% of the pitcher he once was and anchors a staff that surprises and is on the fringes of contending, second best case scenario, for the optimist living in somewhat reality, is that he pitches well enough for another team to consider acquiring him in trade giving the Mets more resources to work with, and worse case scenario, for the doom and gloomer, is he never recovers at any level in which he can contribute positively and is simply yet another albatross of a contract.
Player Profile
| Santana | Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN Game Log | |||
Those are my 2012 Mets Prime 9 Questions, what are yours?
