Predictions: 2009 American League Central Division

With exactly one week remaining until one of the best days, OPENING DAY, of the year I will continue with my predictions as we take a look at the American League Central Division(AL Central).

After a grueling 162 game season in 2008 the AL Central was still undecided as the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins were deadlocked with identical 88-74 records forcing a one game playoff to decide who would be crowned champion of the central division and also moving on to postseason play. In a classic pitching duel between the Twins and White Sox in “Blackout” conditions the Pale Hose came out victorious with a 1-0 nail-biter. The White Sox would go on to play in the Division Series against the eventual American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays would defeat the White Sox 3 games to 1 thus ending all representation of the AL Central from the 2008 postseason. In 2009 I believe the AL Central will be one of the more balanced and competitive divisions in baseball but in the end not much has changed.

2009 AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins (90-72)

The experience the starting pitching staff garnered in 2008 will prove to be beneficial as the young and talented Twins once again will stand by themselves at the top of the AL Central in 2009. With Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and the extremely talented Francisco Liriano, who is another year removed from arm surgery, the rotation should be considered a strength for the Twins and provide enough opportunites to get the ball to one of the top 3 closers in the game, Joe Nathan, who will once again be an anchor in the bullpen. The everyday positional players and role players have a nice mix of young raw talent, up and coming players, and solid veterans. The offense will be powered by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer and have a supporting cast that includes the likes of Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Joe Crede, Denard Span, Delmon Young, and rounded out by gamers Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto. The Twins are probably the most fundamentally sound team in all of baseball and that is in direct correlation to Manager Ron Gardenhire. The Twins organization prides itself with a team concept in which they concentrate on doing the little things right while getting everyone involved and contributing. The Twins are a first-class organization who gets the most out of every team they put together year in and year out and that will continue through the 2009 MLB season.

2. Chicago White Sox (87-75)

The White Sox will make one last run at an AL Central title with an aging group of veteran ballplayers but fall just short of returning to the postseason before making significant changes and fully allowing a crop of young players create a new identity moving forward. The White Sox strengths will be the frontend of their rotation which will include Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and the bullpen which will be made up with the likes of closer Bobby Jenks, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and Matt Thornton. The offense will be comprised of aging veterans such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and up and coming stars Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin. If Konerko could have a big rebound year and General Manager Kenny Williams could find some reliable arms for the backend of the rotation the White Sox could potentially chase down their rivals, the Twins. One thing is for certain Manager Ozzie Guillen will make sure this group of White Sox are a fiesty and entertaining bunch in 2009. Whether or not the White Sox have a successful campaign in 2009 you should expect change in what I would describe as out with the old and in with the young and new going forward.

3. Cleveland Indians (83-79)

The Indians are a hard team to predict as the last four years or so they have been good one year and bad the next which is why I find it somewhat puzzling that mostly everyone is picking them them to win the AL Central. When looking up and down at their roster it is hard to find an area of their ballclub that would be considered dominant for such huge expectations from the fanbase and media alike. The rotation will include Cliff Lee, who won the 2008 CY Young Award but has been wildly inconsistent over his career from year to year, and Fausto Carmona, who has also been very inconsistent, at the frontend but then the quality of pitching falls off dramatically considering Carl Pavano is lining up as their #3 starter. The bullpen should be solid with names like closer Kerry Wood, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, and Joe Smith but it could be worn out by June 1 considering the state of the starting pitching. The offense should be decent with star players like Grady Sizemore and a healthy Victor Martinez with a supporting cast that includes Mark DeRosa, Jhonny Peralta, and Ryan Garko but if the Indians are counting on a big year from the mystery that is Travis Hafner then they could be in trouble. The Indians also have some gamers and role player types like Kelly Shoppach, Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo, and David Dellucci but I fail to see how this offense could be considered dominant. With all the hype I can see the Indians being a candidate for biggest disappointment of the 2009 MLB season which could cost Manger Eric Wedge his job sooner rather than later.

4. Kansas City Royals (82-80)

The Royals and their fans have a lot to be excited about as not only has Kauffman Stadium been renovated and upgraded but the team is finally headed in the right direction and may be the surprise team of the AL Central and the 2009 MLB season. The Royals strengths will also be the frontend of the rotation and the bullpen. The rotation will be anchored by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke while the bullpen will be made up of by the hugely successful in his young career, closer Joakim Soria, along with veterans Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, and Ron Mahay. The Royals will need to rely on a plus defense and somewhat of a small ball brand of baseball to be successful as their team is built around speedy and heady players like Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, and Mike Aviles. Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs should provide some pop in the middle of the order and Alex Gordon should finally be able to relax and contribute at a level in which most scouts and baseball executives thought he would. The Royals and 2nd year Manager Trey Hillman are treating this season like a stepping stone of sorts but with the players they have brought in and the players that are on the way the Royals have a chance to open some eyes in 2009 and bring an excitement to Kansas City that has been missing for years. The winning tradition could follow in the coming years.

5. Detroit Tigers (75-87)

Just three years ago the Tigers looked like a team that was going to be in contention year and year out for the foreseeable future…how quickly the mighty have fallen. Since their successful 2006 campaign the Tigers have been largely a disappointment and that will not change in 2009. Concerning the Tigers pitching, either young righthanders Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman have been vastly overrated or they simply are not getting it done on the field where it counts. My guess is the former but when seeing Verlander’s stuff it is hard to say that. Armando Galarraga, who had a very nice season in 2008, Edwin Jackson, who they hope continues to develop but in many ways has been a disappointment like Verlander and Bonderman throughout his career, and Nate Robertson, who is overpaid and has been simply awful, round out the rotation. The bullpen is in a similar state of despair as they do not have a clear cut closer and Joel Zumaya cannot stay on the field due to health issues. The bullpen looks to have Brandon Lyon masquerading as the closer with Fernando Rodney and Bobby Seay as regular contributors. The position players would look decent if they could use four DHs but when you have Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield, who are all defensive liabilities to go along with a poor pitching staff then you have a recipe for disaster. The Tigers do have two all-around fantastic baseball players in Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco. To put it simply, the Tigers are filled with over-priced, one dimensional, undisciplined, and non-committed ballplayers. The blame for this mess should be placed squarely on General Manager David Dombrowski’s shoulders just as he was given credit for the 2006 Tigers American League Championship team. How anyone could have witnessed Dontrelle Willis pitch over the last 2 years leading up to his trade to the Tigers and then give him a contract extension is beyond unbelievable. Sadly, the Tigers are going to get a lot worse before they can build this team back up mainly due to financial constraints due to bad contracts already given out and the state of the economy and how it is effecting the City of Detroit.

Overall Recap

With the year in and year out sound fundamental baseball that the Twins play, key aging veterans on the White Sox, and the lack of Indians’ starting pitching then look for the Twins to be the class of the AL Central. Ozzie Guillen may be able to rally and will the White Sox to the top if he can get solid years from his aging veterans and if the Indians get strong performances from their top two starting pitchers and can stay within contention through the trade deadline and maybe pick up a starter then there could be a three team race right down to the wire. Rounding out the division is the Royals who should open some eyes and could potentially finish as high as third place while bringing excitement and hope back to Kansas City fans and then we have the Tigers who would have to have their over-hyped starting pitchers live up to expectations finally and Zumaya stay healthy and prove his worth for them to have any chance at all. The 2009 AL Central should be an overall very competitive division which could feature four teams finishing with .500 or better records.